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Size, Structure and Growth of the Population

1.  SIZE, STRUCTURE AND GROWTH OF THE POPULATION

The size, structure and growth of the population of a particular territory are basic variables in demographic analysis. The size of the population refers to the number of people who live in the territory, and the growth to changes in this size over time. The structure is simply the composition of the population by sex and age.

Although a census is a complex and exhaustive statistical operation, it is not free of errors or omissions of population or of housing. Therefore, after a census, it is advisable to undertake a coverage survey and use its results, together with various statistical techniques, to correct and adjust the results obtained in the census. According to the results of the coverage survey undertaken by the INE, the rate of omission in the IIRGPH was 5.1%. That is, the Census reached almost 95% of the country’s population.

The population counted in Mozambique was 15,278,334 people. After the adjustments made, using the rate of census omission and various statistical techniques, it is estimated that the population on the date of the Census (1 August 1997) was 16,099,246. It is important to mention that the usual practice is to adjust, in the way mentioned above, only the population by sex and age (total, urban-rural and by province). The data presented in this section were thus adjusted.

Table 1.1 shows the percentage distribution of the population of the country by province. The data show that the population of Mozambique is distributed in a relatively uniform way between most of the provinces, with the exceptions of Zambézia and Nampula; these two provinces are the most populous and contain 38.4% of the total population. The capital of the country, Maputo City, contains 6.1% of the total population.

Table 1.1 also shows the distribution of the population by sex. There is a small difference between the percentage of men and of women: 47.9% of the inhabitants are men, and 52.1% are women. This is expressed in a masculinity index of 92. This indicator shows the number of men for every 100 women. In some provinces, such as Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo, the masculinity indices are very low (78, 75 e 89, respectively). This seems to have been caused by significant male emigration (see section 4).

Finally, table 1.1 shows that 28.6% of the Mozambican population lives in the urban areas and 71.4% in the rural areas. It is important to mention that the masculinity indices among the

TABLE 1.1: Percentage distribution of the population by sex, and masculinity index, by area of residence and province, Mozambique, 1997
N(000)
 16,099.2 7,714.3 8,384.9 92
Total
 100.0 100.0 100.0  
Urban
 28.6 29.5 27.8 98
Rural
 71.4 70.5 72.2 90
Niassa
 5.0 5.1 4.9 96
Cabo Delgado
 8.6 8.7 8.5 94
Nampula
 19.1 19.8 18.4 99
Zambézia
 19.3 19.5 19.1 94
Tete
 7.6 7.6 7.6 92
Manica
 6.5 6.5 6.5 92
Sofala
 8.5 8.7 8.4 95
Inhambane
 7.2 6.6 7.8 78
Gaza
 6.9 6.2 7.6 75
Maputo
 5.2 5.1 5.2 89
Maputo City
 6.1 6.3 6.0 96

in the urban and rural areas are different. In the former the index is 98, indicating near equilibrium between the number of men and women, but in the latter it is 90, indicating a greater number of women than of men. This last number seems to be the result of male migration from the countryside.

Table 1.2 shows the distribution of the population by sex and age. This distribution can be appreciated better by noting the population pyramid shown in Graph 1.1. This is the most widely used way of showing graphically the structure of a population. The pyramid observed in most countries with high fertility rates and high mortality rates has a broad base with the bands that correspond to five year age groups arranged in the form of a staircase. It can be noted that the Mozambican pyramid is in line with the typical model. However, it is important to mention that, in the case of women, the pyramid displays an irregularity: the bands that correspond to the population aged 15-19 and 20-24 are of a similar size. This could show some misstatement of age. The combination of variations in fertility in the past and a high level of migration may also influence the irregularity observed. 

 

TABLE 1.2: Percentage distribution of the population by sex, and masculinity index, by age, Mozambique, 1997
N(000)
 16,099.2 7,714.3 8,384.9 92
Total
 100.0 100.0 100.0  
0 - 4
 17.5 18.4 16.7 101
5 - 9
 15.1 15.8 14.5 100
10-14
 12.2 12.8 11.6 102
15-19
 10.4 10.6 10.3 95
20-24
 9.3 8.5 10.1 78
25-29
 7.9 7.0 8.6 75
30-34
 6.1 5.8 6.3 84
35-39
 5.0 4.8 5.1 88
40-44
 4.0 3.9 4.1 89
45-49
 3.3 3.2 3.3 89
50-54
 2.6 2.6 2.7 87
55-59
 2.1 2.1 2.2 88
60-64
 1.7 1.7 1.7 90
65-69
 1.2 1.2 1.2 92
70-74
 0.8 0.8 0.8 93
75-79
 0.4 0.4 0.4 96
80 e +
 0.4 0.4 0.4 89

 

 

The masculinity indices by age groups, also shown in Table 1.2, show some fluctuations that may be explained by possible selective male emigration by age. This is the case with the low masculinity indices, particularly between the ages of 20 and 34. In older age groups, indices lower than 100 are caused in part by an excess male mortality in these ages.

Table 1.3 shows some indicators of the age composition of the Mozambican population by area of residence. The population of the country is predominantly young. 44.8% are less than 15 years old. On the other hand the number of elderly people, aged over 65, is just 2.9%. The median age is 17.5 years, which means that half the population is younger than this. The dependency index shows the relation between the population that is potentially economically dependent (0 to 14 years and 65 and above) and the population of working age (15 to 64 years). The figure calculated for Mozambique shows that for every 100 potentially active people, there are 91.0 people who are potentially inactive. Comparatively, this is a high figure, and reflects a high proportion of people less than 15 years old. The rural population of the country is younger than the urban population: however, the difference is small. For example, the difference between the median ages is negligible (0.7 year) and the difference between the percentage of people under 15 is 3.0 percentage points (42.6% and 45.6%, respectively). However, a greater difference is found between the dependency rates of the urban and rural areas; the proportion of the population that is potentially inactive is higher in the latter.



QUADRO 1.3: Indicadores da composição etária da população por área de residência, Moçambique, 1997
N(000)
 16,099.2 4,601.1 11,498.1
Total
 100.0 100.0 100.0
Functional age groups                    
0 - 14 (%)
 44.8 42.6 45.6
15 - 64 (%)
 52.3 55.3 51.2
65 e + (%)
 2.9 2.1 3.2
Dependency index (%)
 91.0 80.9 95.4
Median age (years)
 17.5 18.0 17.3

 

During the period 1980 to 1997, the population of Mozambique grew by almost 4 million, which is a growth of 32.7%. In this period the average annual growth rate (exponential) was 1.7%. With this growth rate, the time it takes to double the Mozambican population is 41.6 years. The natural growth rate of the population for 1996-97 was 2.3%. With this rate, the time it takes to double the population is 29.9 years. In the period 1980-1997, the rural population grew from 10.5 to 11.5 million, that is, by one million people (9.2%); the average annual growth rate (exponential) was 0.5%. On the other hand, in the same period, the population in the urban areas grew from 1.6 to 4.6 million, that is, by three million people, or 187.6%; the average annual growth rate (exponential) was 6.2%. This enormous difference between the growth of population in urban and rural areas was mainly caused by the reclassification, in the IRGPH, as urban, of some areas regarded as rural in the 1980 census. Rural-urban migration may also have influenced the substantial growth in the urban population. The natural growth rates for 1996-97 were 2.2% for the rural population, and 2.7% for the urban population. The difference between these rates is caused by the higher mortality in the rural areas (see Section 3).